"I think there's a world market for about five computers." - attr. Thomas J. Watson, Chairman of the Board, IBM (1943)

In the annals of business forecasting, one prediction stands out for its audacity and subsequent irony: Thomas J. Watson's estimation in 1943 that there would only be a market for about five computers in the world. As the Chairman of the Board at IBM, Watson was speaking at a conventions for the company's sales managers when he made his pronouncement, a statement that was both a reflection of the sentiments of the time and a stark reminder of how far technology would advance in the following decades.

Watson's statement is significant not just because it was so far off, but because it illustrates the initial public perception of computers. In 1943, computers were not consumer items, but rather massive, expensive machines that occupied entire rooms. They were used predominantly by businesses and scientific institutions, and even then, they were inaccessible to the majority of people. The five computers Watson envisioned were likely to be among the first electronic computing machines, and possibly entire sets of computing infrastructure.

The notion of just five computers in the world may seem absurd now, given that even the most basic projections suggest there are now billions of personal computers, tablets, and smartphones in use worldwide. However, contextualizing Watson's statement within the historical timeline of computing provides insight into the thought processes of the era. The first general-purpose electronic computer, ENIAC, was not introduced until 1946, and it was years before the development of the modern programming languages and advancements that would make computers more accessible and user-friendly.

Moreover, the conception of computers as multipurpose tools was still in its infancy. They were often referred to as 'electronic brains' because they were thought of more as specialized tools than as general-purpose machines. Watson's vision likely reflected this view, as he was likely envisioning the next generation of calculating machines that could perform previously impossible feats, rather than the ubiquitous, multifunctional devices we now use daily.

Watson's prediction also serves as a powerful reminder that even well-respected figures in their field can be wrong, and that our understanding of technology's potential can evolve rapidly. As the computing industry progressed, so did the public's comprehension of the technology. By the time Watson passed away in 1956, the IBM 305 RAMAC was introduced, the first computer with disk storage. This stepped stone was a significant leap towards the personal computers we have today.

Today, the story of Watson's prediction serves as a fascinating footnote in the history of computing, illustrating the leap from 'electronic brains' to 'thinking machines' in every pocket.